Before that time arrives, I will spend the summer interning at WCVB-TV in Boston for the second summer in a row. My experience at Channel 5 last summer was phenomenal, and I’m sure this summer’s experience will be just as rewarding.

Of course I’ll also continue my work for my own website, www.HinghamWeather.com, as well.

The Patriot Ledger recently wrote an article about the warm, dry conditions and asked me for some perspective.

> Read the Article

I was flattered to be included in a recent South Shore Magazine feature that profiled a few of those meteorologists, including Tim Kelley of NECN, Rob Gilman of WATD-FM, and Blue Hill Observer Robert Skilling.

With any luck I’ll share some of their professional success in the future!

> Read the Feature [PDF]

Now, HCAM-TV is also airing my extended forecast for Hingham and the South Shore. The weekly produced piece airs daily on HCAM-TV at 6:30am, 12:30pm, and 6:30pm. HCAM-TV can be found on Comcast Channel 97 and Verizon Channel 31 in Hingham.

Weather Ready: This term came up over and over again, from National Weather Service officials to broadcasters. This nation will see a huge ‘Weather Ready’ push to get citizens prepared for any type of weather hazard that may arise. The Alabama tornado outbreak from last April really sparked renewed interest in this initiative.

Teleconnections: The use of teleconnections to produce long range forecasts also came up repeatedly. I attended a session led by Dr. Judah Cohen, a Massachusetts based researcher who has related snow cover in Eurasia and the Arctic Oscillation to the severity of winter in the United States. He says that a deeper Eurasian snow cover induces surface cooling and high pressure development over the snow pack which in turn leads to an amplified jet stream. That then weakens the stratospheric polar vortex which leads to a negative Arctic Oscillation and colder winter for the Eastern part of the United States.

Dual-Pol: Several sessions were again aimed at the new Dual-Pol radars which the National Weather Service is rolling out nation wide now. One session I attended in particular explained how a higher TDS (Tornado Debris Signature) can be used to assert that a strong, violent tornado is on the ground. However, the TDS value reaches a max 5-10 minutes after the widespread wind damage has occurred. That lag time may prevent advanced warning for some areas.

Storm Surge: Emergency Managers, and Director of the National Hurricane Center Bill Read both spoke about the risks that come with hurricanes. Both made the same important point: that storm surge is the single most dangerous aspect of a hurricane. Both say they are working to better educate the public on what storm surge is, and to better explain what risks it brings during each individual storm. They report that most people don’t understand the forecasts which call for water heights either above sea-level or above ground-level.

There is far more interesting information that came out of the meeting, but those were the big take away points for me.

Uccellini says that the goal of any good computer model is to contain and minimize errors, which is why ensembles are helpful and increasingly being used. He cited the February 10, 2010 snow storm that rocked Washington, DC as an example of a storm where the ensembles performed quite well several days in advance, leading to an excellent forecast.

It was a different story just before Christmas 2010, however. The potential was there for a major winter storm to strike areas from New York to Boston just after Christmas, but operational models were waffling back and forth and the ensembles were somewhat divergent. With so much uncertainty, most forecasters bought into the European model which sent the storm more or less out to sea. Uccellini admitted that the “European is the best model in the world”, so that approach didn’t seem completely unreasonable.

On Christmas Eve, just before the storm was set to impact the Northeast, the European stayed wide-right. However, the American GFS model shifted dramatically west, a solution that would bring crippling snow to the Northeast. Modelers sent out a discussion saying that GFS run was fraught with initialization errors, and that it should be taken with a grain of salt. In hindsight, it was actually a decent projection of what was coming. When I asked him about this statement, which likely ended up delaying most meteorologists in buying into a big storm situation, he said the issue would have been better described as an ‘analysis’ issue as opposed to an initialization issue. He went on to say that RAOB data helped to clarify the situation.

In the end, forecasters failed to truly warn of the impending blizzard until 24-36 hours before the storm. By that time it was too late for many emergency managers to prepare as necessary, especially in New York. For full storm plans to be put in place, a forecast with decent confidence and consistency is required 2-4 days out. The result was chaos in the Big Apple.

The bottom line, according to Uccellini, is that ensembles can often better predict storm tracks. And, he says, if the ensembles fail to provide consistency on a storm track, it at least gives forecasters a better understanding of the uncertainty involved, which can then be passed along to the user for better planning.

One final point presented was the fact that winter storm forecasts are typically made with more confidence during El Nino patterns as opposed to La Nina patterns since the sub-tropical jet is weaker and more variable in the latter case. That leads to a cross polar flow, and phasing troughs that are hard to predict.

Just last night President Graham Spanier and long time, legendary football coach Joe Paterno were forced out of their respective positions by the Board of Trustees. Soon afterward, riots erupted in downtown State College. Some in the crowd became violent, toppling light poles and even a news van.

Living through this week as a student has been trying, but it has also presented a unique opportunity as an aspiring broadcaster. Several opportunities have presented themselves as the world looks for more information from Happy Valley.

On Wednesday, WBZ-TV interviewed me via Skype regarding the student sentiment on campus. Part of the interview was aired on the 6 PM news.

Wednesday night, as the riots raged in downtown State College, I conducted a live phone interview at the top of WCVB’s 11 PM news.

On Thursday, I was interviewed live on CNN Newsroom and twice on CNN’s Headline News. I also taped an interview to be used during WCVB’s evening newscast.

My hope is that I accurately and fairly portrayed the feeling of Penn State students to others watching from afar.

Today’s club meeting discussed tornadoes, among other things. We started off by drawing tornado formation step by step on the white board. The students helped me act out parts of tornadogenesis as well.

By far, the highlight of the day was when each student made his or her own tornado in a bottle. The students loved making vortices of various widths and heights. Plus, they really seemed to engage with the material!

Here along the coast, it was pretty much the run-of-the-mill Nor’Easter with strong winds, minor coastal flooding, and just a touch of snow towards the end of the storm.

Hingham Patch used my forecast in a story they posted ahead of the storm.

Although I was actively looking for the Northern Lights here in State College, I never saw anything more than a slight red tint along the horizon when looking north.

The Daily College wrote a story about the light show, and asked for some input on the event. Read the Story.